THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON UZBEKISTAN’S TEXTILE AND GARMENT EXPORTS (2017–2025): EVIDENCE WITH GLOBAL COTTON-PRICE CONTROL

Аннотация

This thesis examines how monetary conditions relate to Uzbekistan’s textile and garment exports once global cotton prices are controlled for. Quarterly data for 2017Q1–2025Q4 are analyzed in a multivariate log‑linear OLS framework, where exports are linked to cotton prices and domestic indicators (exchange rate, inflation, policy rate, and sector credit).

Cotton prices are the most robust driver in the reported models (baseline elasticity ≈ 0.67; highly significant). In the baseline specification, the exchange rate is positive and significant, while inflation is negative and significant; credit effects are weaker and the policy rate is not significant.

A lag‑augmented check suggests domestic effects are timing‑sensitive and lose precision, whereas cotton remains robust. The findings imply that monetary policy primarily supports exporters through stability and predictability, while commodity‑price dynamics remain central for sector export outcomes.