Ключевые слова
Аннотация
This article examines whether and through which monetary-policy-related attributes monetary conditions are associated with Uzbekistan’s textile and garment export outcomes once global cotton prices are explicitly controlled for. The empirical design uses quarterly data for 2017–2025 and estimates a multivariate log-linear framework linking exports to global cotton prices and candidate domestic monetary attributes (exchange rate, inflation, policy rate, and sector credit).
The results show that global cotton prices are the most robust driver in the reported models: the baseline elasticity is about 0.675 and remains positive and highly significant across specifications. Domestic indicators display selective and specification-sensitive evidence.
In the baseline regression, the exchange rate is positive and statistically significant, while inflation is negative and significant; however, when lagged dynamics are introduced, contemporaneous terms lose precision and the pattern shifts toward delayed effects with weaker statistical strength. The policy rate does not exhibit an independent association in the baseline and is not retained in the reported lag specification.
The findings imply that, within the 2017–2025 sample, monetary policy should
be interpreted primarily as a contributor to stability and predictability for exporters rather
than as a direct lever for delivering the PD‑6 export target in a commodity-exposed sector.
Библиографические ссылки
President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2017) Decree No. PD‑5177 dated 2 September 2017 “On priority measures to liberalize monetary (currency) policy”.
President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2017) Decree No. PD‑5285 dated 14 December 2017 “On measures to accelerate the development of the textile, clothing and knitting (sewing‑knitwear) industry”.
President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2019) Decree No. PD‑5877 dated 18 November 2019 “On improving monetary policy with a gradual transition to an inflation targeting regime”.
President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2020) Decree No. PD‑5992 dated 12 May 2020 “On the Strategy for reforming the banking system of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2020–2025”.
President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2025) Decree No. PD‑6 dated 16 January 2025 (National Database of Legislation).
Al Rasasi, M. and Cabezon, E. (2022) Uzbekistan’s Transition to Inflation Targeting. IMF Working Papers, 2022/229.
Carrière‑Swallow, Y., Gruss, B., Magud, N.E. and Valencia, F. (2021) ‘Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass‑Through’, International Journal of Central Banking, 17(3), pp. 61–94.
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Naraidoo, R. and Paez‑Farrell, J. (2023) ‘Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 151, 104654.
UNCTAD (2025) Trade and Development Report 2025: On the brink – trade, finance and the reshaping of the global economy.
Association of Textile and Garment Industry (Uztextileprom) (n.d.) Official materials.
Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan (n.d.) Official statistical materials.
World Bank (2026) Commodity price data (“Pink Sheet”) – cotton price benchmark.